This appeal concerns a decision of a refugee and protection officer declining to grant refugee or protected person status to the appellant, a citizen of Somalia.  The appellant feared returning to Somalia, as he considered that Al-Shabaab would seriously harm him. 

Trbiunal Member Aitchison, on July 30, 2025, held that appellant was a refugee within the meaning of the Refugee Convention. The Tribunal found that the appellant was likely to face a tapestry of such harms that cumulatively reached the threshold of serious harm. Part of the Tribunal’s consideration centred on climate insecurity, with Somalia ranking seventh among the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. The Tribunal noted that the effects of climate change are compounded by the actions of Al-Shabaab, noting that while droughts and climate change did not create Al-Shabaab or cause Somalia’s instability, they have shaped the environment in which the conflict is taking place and influenced the militant group’s tactics and evolution, relying on a report from the International Crisis Group “Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones”. The Tribunal found that the [ICG] reports convey how climate change and conflict are increasingly intertwined, and Al-Shabaab are exploiting climate threats and emergencies.

AX (Somalia) v Refugee and Protection Officer

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AX (Somalia) v Refugee and Protection Officer - decision

Filed

This appeal concerns a decision of a refugee and protection officer declining to grant refugee or protected person status to the appellant, a citizen of Somalia.  The appellant feared returning to Somalia, as he considered that Al-Shabaab would seriously harm him. 

Trbiunal Member Aitchison, on July 30, 2025, held that appellant was a refugee within the meaning of the Refugee Convention. The Tribunal found that the appellant was likely to face a tapestry of such harms that cumulatively reached the threshold of serious harm. Part of the Tribunal’s consideration centred on climate insecurity, with Somalia ranking seventh among the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. The Tribunal noted that the effects of climate change are compounded by the actions of Al-Shabaab, noting that while droughts and climate change did not create Al-Shabaab or cause Somalia’s instability, they have shaped the environment in which the conflict is taking place and influenced the militant group’s tactics and evolution, relying on a report from the International Crisis Group “Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones”. The Tribunal found that the [ICG] reports convey how climate change and conflict are increasingly intertwined, and Al-Shabaab are exploiting climate threats and emergencies. 

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An aim to achieve a quantifiable outcome within a given time-frame, set by an institution such as a national government.

Policy instruments are techniques or tools used by governing authorities to promote certain policies in order to achieve predetermined goals. Put simply, instruments are how a government tries to achieve its goals, with this taxonomy being focused on national policy instruments.

Risk is the potential for adverse consequences resulting from the dynamic interplay between (climate-related) hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of affected human or ecological systems.

Groups  of people who are adversely affected by climate change or the response to it

A set of principles, processes, and practices that build economic and political power to shift from an extractive economy to a regenerative economy.

Justice is the ethical and political framework that addresses fairness, including issues of responsibility, rights, and structural inequity.

Renewable energy means all forms of energy produced from renewable sources in a sustainable manner.

Fossil fuel is a generic term for non-renewable energy sources such as coal, fossil gas, and oil (including crude oil, and petroleum products), that can be used for electricity and heat generation. Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons formed from pressurised and heated organic material buried over millions of years.

Molecules in the atmosphere that play a key role in the greenhouse effect by trapping heat radiating from Earth’s surface.

Area of the economy in which actors engage in identical or related activities.

In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects, in order to moderate harm, increase resilience or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate change and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate change and its effects.

The management and allocation of funds, assets and investments to meet various objectives

People who are less able to respond to the effects of climate change due to having limited financial or physical assets

Financial actors and resources that are primarily directed towards climate change mitigation, adaptation and compensation.

Finance that is primarily directed towards climate change adaptation, including increasing resilience and robustness to actual or expected climate change and its effects.

Dedicated pool of financial resources for climate-related projects.

Either money or something of monetary value is transferred between two or more organisations, people or countries.

Conditions that enhance the feasibility of adaptation options. Enabling conditions include finance, technological innovation, strengthening policy instruments, institutional capacity, multi-level governance and changes in human behaviour and lifestyles.

Actions or measures to adapt terrestrial systems to climate change.

Actions or measures to adapt freshwater systems to climate change.

Actions to adapt human health, healthcare systems and well-being to climate change.

Actions to adapt and increase the resilience of rural and urban infrastructure and settlements to climate change.

Actions and measures to adapt and increase resilience of societies and the economy to climate change.

Actions or measures to adapt freshwater, coastal and marine systems to climate change.

Actions to reduce emissions in energy generation and supply.

Risks to the ecosystem health of the marine environment, including ocean warming, ocean acidification, and ocean deoxygenation, harming biodiversity, species health, ecosystem services, and coastal community livelihoods.

Extreme weather refers to events where a weather variable exceeds (or falls below) a threshold. Meaning it is significantly different from the average or usual weather pattern.

A drought is an extended period of unusually dry weather marked by a significant and sustained lack of precipitation, falling below a specific threshold over a large area for more than a month

Terrestrial means "of the earth" and relates to the risks to ecological system that includes all living organisms and their interactions within land-based environments, such as forests, grasslands, and deserts.

Social protection systems consist of policies that help people manage social risks in order to prevent poverty and maintain decent incomes and living standards

Energy derived from biological compounds that are renewable due to their short life cycle within the carbon dioxide cycle.

People with different national or cultural traditions from the dominant population

Social and cultural groups that share collective ancestral ties to the lands and natural resources where they live, occupy or from which they have been displaced

People who have left their homes, whether through force, voluntarily, or a mixture of both

woman and genders outside of the gender binary

Any compulsory, unrequited payment to the government levied on corporations or individuals. This can be for environmental reasons, such as introducing a Carbon tax to set a price that emitters must pay for the greenhouse gases they emit.

Households employing domestic workers, for activities like cooking, cleaning and subsistence farming, for their own use.

This sector involves managing waste treatment, sanitation, pollution control and environmental cleanup.

Activities that involve planning, designing and building infrastructure, residential, and commercial structures.

Activities that provide lodging, food, and entertainment services to guests, including hotels, restaurants, and resorts.

This sector creates and distributes information and entertainment through television, radio, print, and digital platforms.

This sector involves activities that impart knowledge and skills to individuals, including formal schooling, vocational training and educational support.

Activities of government agencies and institutions that provide public services, enforce laws and manage public resources.

Activities of businesses and institutions that provide financial services and products to individuals and organisations.

Activities that involve the cultivation of crops and raising of livestock for food, fibre, and other products essential for human life and industry.

This sector involves the distribution, treatment, and conservation of water resources.

Climate change can have a range of impacts on technological system. Extreme weather events can cause infrastructure failures like power outages or damage to roads and bridges, as well as the impacts from waste following natural disasters. Human activities also cause technological impacts, such as the risks posed by oil spillage and leaks.

Climate change impacts our society by disrupting the natural, economic and social systems we depend on. Physical hazards and underlying vulnerabilities can lead to increased resource competition for food and water, which can heighten the risk of conflict.

Slow onset events evolve gradually from incremental changes over many years or from increased frequency or intensity of recurring events. As defined in the Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010), slow onset events include risks and impacts from rising temperatures, desertification, biodiversity loss, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and salinization.

Heavy precipitation refers to any form of weather where substances fall from the sky, including rain, snow, sleet, or hail.

Geohazards are adverse geological phenomenon's that are capable of causing widespread damage or loss to property, life and the environment, such as earthquakes, volcano eruptions and tsunamis. Climate change can increase the frequency and severity of some geohazards, such as landslides, and soil erosion.

AX (Somalia) v Refugee and Protection Officer - decision

Policy instrument

Risk

Impacted group

Just transition

Renewable energy

Economic sector

Adaptation/resilience

Finance