AX (Somalia) v Refugee and Protection Officer

This appeal concerns a decision of a refugee and protection officer declining to grant refugee or protected person status to the appellant, a citizen of Somalia. The appellant feared returning to Somalia, as he considered that Al-Shabaab would seriously harm him. Trbiunal Member Aitchison, on July 30, 2025, held that appellant was a refugee within the meaning of the Refugee Convention. The Tribunal found that the appellant was likely to face a tapestry of such harms that cumulatively reached the threshold of serious harm. Part of the Tribunal’s consideration centred on climate insecurity, with Somalia ranking seventh among the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. The Tribunal noted that the effects of climate change are compounded by the actions of Al-Shabaab, noting that while droughts and climate change did not create Al-Shabaab or cause Somalia’s instability, they have shaped the environment in which the conflict is taking place and influenced the militant group’s tactics and evolution, relying on a report from the International Crisis Group “Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones”. The Tribunal found that the [ICG] reports convey how climate change and conflict are increasingly intertwined, and Al-Shabaab are exploiting climate threats and emergencies.